Latest news with #trade surplus
Malay Mail
6 days ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Vietnam's trade windfall is a warning: The transshipment risk remains — Phar Kim Beng and Lutfy Hamzah
JULY 14 — Vietnam's booming trade surplus with the United States, recently reported to have reached a record high in the first half of this year, appears at first glance to be a cause for national celebration. The scale of the surplus paints a picture of a country reaping the benefits of economic resilience and shrewd positioning in the global supply chain. But beneath this glittering headline lies a dangerous vulnerability: Vietnam's growing exposure to being labelled a transshipment hub for Chinese goods. This risk is not theoretical. It is fast becoming the central lens through which Vietnam's trade relations with the US are being assessed. In an environment where President Donald Trump's administration has reintroduced the blunt instrument of tariffs to achieve both political and economic aims, Vietnam's trade performance — no matter how impressive — has become a potential liability. JULY 14 — Vietnam's booming trade surplus with the United States, recently reported to have reached a record high in the first half of this year, appears at first glance to be a cause for national celebration. The scale of the surplus paints a picture of a country reaping the benefits of economic resilience and shrewd positioning in the global supply chain. But beneath this glittering headline lies a dangerous vulnerability: Vietnam's growing exposure to being labelled a transshipment hub for Chinese goods. Much of Vietnam's manufacturing capacity has surged in recent years due to the strategic relocation of production from China, driven by firms hoping to avoid the fallout of US-China decoupling. But with many of these manufacturers continuing to rely heavily on Chinese inputs — whether semiconductors, electronics components, or raw textiles — Washington is beginning to suspect that Vietnam's exports are merely rebranded Chinese goods making a stopover before heading to US ports. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Vietnam's Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son during the 58th Asean Foreign Ministers' meeting and related meetings at the Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur on July 11, 2025. — Reuters pic The Trump administration has now formalised this suspicion into policy. Following tense negotiations, Vietnam managed to avoid the full force of a punitive tariff hike. But the agreement is fragile. While most Vietnamese exports will be taxed at a reduced rate, a separate, sharply higher tariff awaits any product deemed to be insufficiently transformed from its Chinese origin. The question now revolves around how the US defines 'substantial transformation' and how aggressively it enforces this threshold. Vietnam's supply chain remains deeply entangled with China. The challenge is not simply about tariffs but about verification. The US demands hard proof that goods exported from Vietnam are genuinely the product of Vietnamese labour, materials, and innovation — not just lightly assembled or relabelled Chinese components. This demand places immense pressure on Vietnamese exporters, many of whom lack the robust documentation and transparency systems needed to meet the expected compliance standards. Hanoi, in turn, finds itself in a precarious diplomatic position. On the one hand, it must satisfy American demands for transparency, inspection, and enforcement. On the other, it cannot afford to antagonise China, its largest trading partner and essential source of manufacturing inputs. This delicate balancing act is made more perilous by Trump's unpredictable and transactional foreign policy. His administration's rhetoric casts South-east Asian economies not as partners, but as intermediaries enabling Chinese evasion. Vietnam now risks being the poster child of such accusations. Even as Vietnamese officials work to tighten origin certification and increase domestic value-added production, the broader danger persists. Trump's tariff logic is not rooted in economic precision but political calculation. Tariffs are deployed not only to correct trade imbalances but to generate state revenue, rally political support, and project strength. Trump's team has already indicated its intent to use tariff penalties to generate significant sums for the federal treasury this year. Vietnam's status as a top trading partner makes it an attractive target. To navigate this volatile environment, Vietnam must move decisively. It must reform its rules-of-origin systems to become more transparent, digitised, and verifiable. This means not only overhauling customs procedures but ensuring that every export can be traced back to a clearly documented and Vietnamese-based supply chain. Without such a system, even legitimate exporters may find their goods penalised under ambiguous classifications. Moreover, the country must begin to diversify its input sources. This will not be easy. China's scale and price competitiveness are difficult to match. But a reliance on Chinese materials, in the eyes of US policymakers, now equates to strategic vulnerability. Vietnam must develop alternative supply arrangements, particularly with partners in Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and even India. This diversification is not just about economic resilience but geopolitical survival. Diplomatically, Vietnam must also intensify its multilateral engagement. Bilateral negotiations with the US are insufficient. Hanoi should work with Asean, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and other regional blocs to push back against arbitrary and unilateral trade restrictions. By framing the conversation within a multilateral rules-based system, Vietnam can gain leverage and legitimacy. The broader lesson is sobering. Vietnam's economic success has been built on its integration into global supply chains. But in an era where geopolitical rivalry has corrupted the logic of free trade, that very integration can become a liability. Trump's tariffs, while ostensibly targeted at China, are being implemented in ways that harm America's allies and partners. The goal is less about fair trade and more about dominance and extraction. South-east Asia is watching closely. Vietnam may be the current target, but the logic extends across the region. Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia — all of whom play key roles in the regional manufacturing ecosystem — may soon face similar accusations. The United States, under Trump's leadership, is reshaping global commerce into a series of loyalty tests: comply with our tariffs, rewrite your laws, reconfigure your supply chains—or be punished. In this climate, Vietnam's record-breaking trade surplus is no guarantee of security. In fact, it may be the very reason why more scrutiny is coming. The challenge for Hanoi is not simply to weather this storm, but to reposition itself for a new era where trade success is judged less by volume and more by provenance. In a world where every shipping manifest is now a political document, and every export can become a diplomatic flashpoint, Vietnam must become more than a manufacturing hub. It must become a rules-enforcer, a supply chain innovator, and a standard-bearer of economic credibility. Otherwise, its hard-earned surplus may prove ephemeral outshined by the enduring burden of suspicion. * Phar Kim Beng is Professor of Asean Studies and Director of the Institute of Internationalization and Asean Studies (IINTAS), International Islamic University Malaysia. ** Luthfy Hamzah is a research fellow at IINTAS *** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail
Khaleej Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Saudi-GCC non-oil trade surplus achieves 203% annual growth: GASTAT
The non-oil trade surplus of Saudi Arabia with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries recorded an annual growth rate of 203.2% to more than SAR2 billion in April. It soared to around SAR3,511 million from SAR1,158 million in the same month last year. According to preliminary data from the International Trade Bulletin for April, published by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the total volume of non-oil trade, including re-exports, between Saudi Arabia and GCC countries amounted to around SAR18,028 million. This reflects a year-on-year growth of 41.3%, with an increase of SAR5,271 million from SAR12,757 million in April 2024. Non-oil commodity exports, including re-exports, rose by 55%, totaling SAR10,770 million, up from SAR6,958 million in April of the previous year, an increase of over SAR3,812 million, Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported citing the GASTAT figures. Meanwhile, the value of national non-oil commodity exports reached around SAR3,031 million, compared to SAR2,675 million in April 2024, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3%, with an increase estimated at SAR356 million. Additionally, the value of re-exports surged by 81%, reaching SAR7,738 million compared to SAR4,282 million, an increase of SAR3,456 million. Saudi Arabia's imports from GCC countries stood at SAR7,258 million in April 2025, compared to SAR5,799 million last year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, with an increase of SAR1,459 million. The data indicated that the United Arab Emirates ranked first in terms of non-oil trade volume with Saudi Arabia, amounting to SAR13,533 million, representing about 75.1% of the total. Bahrain followed in second place with a trade value of SAR1,798 million (10%), while Oman ranked third with SAR1,454 million (8.1%). Kuwait was fourth with SAR819.9 million (4.5%), and Qatar came next with a value of SAR422.1 million (2.3%).
Arabian Business
11-07-2025
- Business
- Arabian Business
Saudi Arabia's non-oil trade surplus with GCC nations soars 203 per cent to $937m in April 2025
Saudi Arabia's non-oil trade surplus with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries surged by an impressive 203.2 per cent year-on-year in April 2025, reaching SR2bn ($533m), up from SR1.16bn ($310m) in the same month of 2024, according to preliminary data released by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). The total non-oil trade volume, which includes re-exports, between the Kingdom and its GCC neighbours rose to SR18.03bn ($4.81bn), marking a 41.3 per cent annual increase compared to SR12.76bn ($3.41bn) in April 2024. Saudi non-oil trade with GCC Key figures from April 2025: Non-oil commodity exports (including re-exports): SR10.77bn ($2.87bn), up 55 per cent from SR6.96bn ($1.85bn) National non-oil exports: SR3.03bn ($807 million), up 13.3 per cent from SR2.68bn ($714 million) Re-exports: SR7.74bn ($2.06bn), up 81 per cent from SR4.28bn ($1.14bn) Imports from GCC countries: SR7.26bn ($1.94bn), up 25.2 per cent from SR5.80bn ($1.53bn) The strong performance in re-exports played a major role in lifting the overall surplus and reflects Saudi Arabia's growing role as a regional trade hub. GCC trade partners ranked by volume Bahrain: SR1.80bn ($481 million), 10 per cent share Oman: SR1.45bn ($388 million), 8.1 per cent share Kuwait: SR819.9 million ($219 million), 4.5 per cent share Qatar: SR422.1 million ($113 million), 2.3 per cent share The April 2025 data underscores Saudi Arabia's successful diversification strategy under Vision 2030, with robust growth in non-oil trade reinforcing its economic resilience and strengthening regional ties within the GCC.
Zawya
11-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Annual growth of Saudi – GCC non-oil trade surplus soars 203% in April
RIYADH — Saudi Arabia's non-oil trade surplus with other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states recorded an annual growth of 203.2 percent during April 2025. This figure posted an increase of more than SR2 billion, reaching approximately SR3,511 million, compared to SR1,158 million in the same month last year, according to the preliminary data from the International Trade Bulletin for April 2025, issued by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). The report showed that the total volume of non-oil trade, including re-exports, between the Kingdom and the GCC countries amounted to approximately SR18,028 million, recording an annual growth of 41.3 percent, an increase of SR5,271 million, compared to SR12,757 million in April 2024. Non-oil commodity exports, including re-exports, increased by 55 percent, reaching SR10,770 million, compared to SR6,958 million in April last year, an increase of more than SR3,812 million. Non-oil national commodity exports amounted to approximately SR3,031 million, compared to SR2,675 million during the same period in 2024, achieving an annual growth of 13.3 percent, an increase of SR356 million. The value of re-exports also jumped by 81 percent, reaching SR7,738 million, compared to SR4,282 million in April 2024, a difference of SR3,456 million. As for imports from Gulf countries, their value reached SR7,258 million, compared to SR5,799 million in April last year, achieving an annual growth of 25.2 percent, with an increase of SR1,459 million. The data showed that the United Arab Emirates ranked first in terms of the volume of non-oil trade exchange with the Kingdom, with a value of SR13,533 million, representing approximately 75.1 percent of the total. Bahrain came in second place with a value of SR1,798 million (10 percent), followed by Oman with a value of SR1,454 million (8.1percent), while Kuwait in the fourth place with SR819.9 million (4.5 percent), and Qatar comes last with a value of SR422.1 million (2.3 percent). © Copyright 2022 The Saudi Gazette. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Asharq Al-Awsat
11-07-2025
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi-GCC Non-Oil Trade Surplus Achieves 203% Annual Growth
The non-oil trade surplus of Saudi Arabia with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries recorded an annual growth rate of 203.2% to more than SAR2 billion in April, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Friday. It soared to around SAR3,511 million from SAR1,158 million in the same month last year. According to preliminary data from the International Trade Bulletin for April, published by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the total volume of non-oil trade, including re-exports, between Saudi Arabia and GCC countries amounted to around SAR18,028 million. This reflects a year-on-year growth of 41.3%, with an increase of SAR5,271 million from SAR12,757 million in April 2024. Non-oil commodity exports, including re-exports, rose by 55%, totaling SAR10,770 million, up from SAR6,958 million in April of the previous year, an increase of over SAR3,812 million. Meanwhile, the value of national non-oil commodity exports reached around SAR3,031 million, compared to SAR2,675 million in April 2024, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3%, with an increase estimated at SAR356 million. Additionally, the value of re-exports surged by 81%, reaching SAR7,738 million compared to SAR4,282 million, an increase of SAR3,456 million. Saudi Arabia's imports from GCC countries stood at SAR7,258 million in April 2025, compared to SAR5,799 million last year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, with an increase of SAR1,459 million. The data indicated that the United Arab Emirates ranked first in terms of non-oil trade volume with Saudi Arabia, amounting to SAR13,533 million, representing about 75.1% of the total. Bahrain followed in second place with a trade value of SAR1,798 million (10%), while Oman ranked third with SAR1,454 million (8.1%). Kuwait was fourth with SAR819.9 million (4.5%), and Qatar came next with a value of SAR422.1 million (2.3%).
